Will Linux prevail?

edited October 2016 in Software
Today marks 25 years since the Linux kernel's creation, done by one man only by the name of Linus Torvalds. To be honest, I didn't think the Linux kernel has been around for that long as I only knew about it just a couple of years ago but I'm glad that it exists anyway, for many reasons. Since its creation, there is now a countless number of distros using it though I'm only familiar with the more well-known Ubuntu, Debian and Linux Mint and obviously, it has evolved over the past recent years.

I've also noticed something remarkable recently... for a long time, Linux had struggled with the market share where it can only be a number just slightly higher than 1% but now, I saw that as of August 2016, it is now 2.11% so it looks like it's becoming more popular now, but will it ever overtake Windows in the near future? Only time can tell.

That's all I can say here for now other than... happy birthday to you, Linux :)
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Comments

  • Bry89 wrote:
    but will it ever overtake Windows in the near future? Only time can tell

    Unless MS continue to make catastrophic decisions regarding windows' behaviour and updates as it has been, I doubt it. I've been reading articles about the year of desktop Linux since I was at least 12, and 16 years later it still hasn't materialised.
  • Linux is great for servers and the like because of its security and stability, but not so much for the desktop. It's still too complicated to use for the average user, and a stable marketing position has never been established for desktop Linux. Now that after all this time people have become so used to either Windows or OS X I doubt that Linux will ever have a chance of overtaking either of them, even of Linux somehow became easier to use for most people.

    And lets not forget that there are dozens of distributions to choose from, resulting in even less consistency in terms of usability, interface, software, etc.
  • edited September 2016
    BOD wrote:
    Bry89 wrote:
    but will it ever overtake Windows in the near future? Only time can tell

    Unless MS continue to make catastrophic decisions regarding windows' behaviour and updates as it has been, I doubt it. I've been reading articles about the year of desktop Linux since I was at least 12, and 16 years later it still hasn't materialised.
    I was aware of this before, of it not fully ready for the desktop as what you implied. Makes me wonder why it's still in that state after such a long time. Well, maybe in the next five or ten years or so, it will prevail and hopefully one day will have the potential to crush Windows for good. Back in the day when OS X was new, that had the same potential too but for some reason, the people of Apple decided not to.
  • It might not be the best for desktop usage, but it sure has come a long way since the beginning. I switched from Windows 7 to Mint almost 4 months ago, and I have barely ever booted into Windows again since then. It even taught me more about computers and how they work along with how source code gets built. Other opinions differ, but Linux surely has given a positive boost to my computing.

    So I wish Linux a very happy 25th.
  • Deceiver wrote:
    It's still too complicated to use for the average user

    :lol::lol: HAHAHAHAHAHA :lol::lol: Seriously though?

    Linux is so simple to use, I don't understand how anybody could ever have an issue using it. I mean Linux Mint basically has THE SAME desktop structure as Windows does.
  • Deceiver wrote:
    Linux is great for servers and the like because of its security and stability, but not so much for the desktop. It's still too complicated to use for the average user.
    ...

    I would've said something about that but Dosbox has beaten me to it. Although, I have to say that some distros are more geared towards advanced users but there's still plenty for those familiar with Windows and OS X. Why should a completely different OS keep you from using it like you have for what you're used to? That's just insane. And I'll tell you this... I believe anything using the Linux kernel is far more simpler to use than Windows 10, and maybe OS X El Capitan also (even though I don't mind it, and prefer it over Win10 by a long shot). Even for the likes of me who would rather use his computer for surfing the net and organising files. Not what the commoner person does nowadays from using Cortana to needing an online account just to access an office suite let alone use the OS itself.
  • I think people would use linux more if you could use windows application and games with it. I know they got wine to run windows stuff but it doesn't run everything out there. I like to play world of warcraft and i couldn't get it to work right and it was slow and it would freeze up at times. I think if they could put a better windows sub system in there to run applications and games more people would use linux more. I like kubuntu as a linux to use. They may be better to use. Right now i don't have linux installed on my new system i use. I think with windows 10 being the last version of windows more people may try linux and with windows 7 losing support in the next few years people just have 3 choices between windows 10 mac ox or linux. Since macs cost to much to buy and windows 10 needs a core 2 cpu or higher right now. Down the road microsoft may make the system requirement higher for windows 10 as computer get faster and memory get higher in newer computers. Linux is free and will work on just about any computer out there so you can keep that older computer going. Everybody going to have there own opinion on what OS is good.
  • Bry89 wrote:
    Deceiver wrote:
    Linux is great for servers and the like because of its security and stability, but not so much for the desktop. It's still too complicated to use for the average user.
    ...

    I would've said something about that but Dosbox has beaten me to it. Although, I have to say that some distros are more geared towards advanced users but there's still plenty for those familiar with Windows and OS X. Why should a completely different OS keep you from using it like you have for what you're used to? That's just insane. And I'll tell you this... I believe anything using the Linux kernel is far more simpler to use than Windows 10, and maybe OS X El Capitan also (even though I don't mind it, and prefer it over Win10 by a long shot). Even for the likes of me who would rather use his computer for surfing the net and organising files. Not what the commoner person does nowadays from using Cortana to needing an online account just to access an office suite let alone use the OS itself.

    I only meant that things like installing new applications tend to be a bit more tricky on Linux for the average user (I'm not talking about those who know a bit more about this stuff, I'm really talking the average Joe here). On Windows or Mac you just download an installer package, you run it and there's your program. Or you download it from one of the app stores. Some Linux distros do have things that are similar to app stores, but they have nowhere near the amount of applications that 'commercial' app stores have. If an application has a Linux version (and not all applications do), then it usually has to be compiled from source or installed from the command line, which isn't something that the average Windows or Mac user is used to.

    I agree that for people around here Linux isn't difficult to use at all, but it really can be for those that want an easy to use OS out of the box. But that's just my opinion (and has been my experience whenever I introduced others to desktop Linux).
  • Deceiver wrote:
    Linux is great for servers and the like because of its security and stability, but not so much for the desktop. It's still too complicated to use for the average user, and a stable marketing position has never been established for desktop Linux.
    Which distro have you been using? Unless you having been using plan 9, then I could understand your thinking. I do agree that average computer users will reject linux because they don't like change.

    To me, Linux (and some Unix's) are by far the easiest OS that you can use. It's documentation is by far the most complete (depending on the distro) and user friendly. It's easily configure and once you get it to a place that works for you, it will be easy to start working. And by far, from what I have heard from some of my friends who are taking a Windows administration class, Linux is way more easier than having to deal with a Windows 8.1 machine. One more thing, the LPI essentials exam is really easy to pass... :P
  • Will Linux overtake Windows? I doubt it... Maybe not never, but it's so far into the future that for as far as any of us are concerned, it won't happen.

    I do, however, think Linux's market share will continue to grow and eventually it may find itself competing with macOS. Remember, for as popular as macOS is, they still haven't managed much more than about 5%. The world is a big damn place and most of it runs Windows.

    It's been said before, but the basic problem is that people don't install OS's. OEMs do. People buy a shiny new computer when their old one is completely useless and whatever OS it comes with is the one they use. It never even occurs to them that it's possible to install a different OS. Linux needs to capture the pre-install market. Once they do that, they'll find an increase in marketshare. There's been some attempts at this before, but it hasn't worked out too well.

    Another issue Linux faces is one of the benefits for tech users... market fragmentation. Oh you run Linux? What distro? Arch? Fedora? Ubuntu? Mint? Something else? There's way too much choice and that confuses and scares normal users.
  • BlueSun wrote:
    Another issue Linux faces is one of the benefits for tech users... market fragmentation. Oh you run Linux? What distro? Arch? Fedora? Ubuntu? Mint? Something else? There's way too much choice and that confuses and scares normal users.
    Not unless they just go for what's more popular, like Ubuntu or Linux Mint. But I do know where you're coming from and there's probably more distros being released as we speak.
  • BlueSun wrote:
    It's been said before, but the basic problem is that people don't install OS's. OEMs do. People buy a shiny new computer when their old one is completely useless and whatever OS it comes with is the one they use. It never even occurs to them that it's possible to install a different OS. Linux needs to capture the pre-install market. Once they do that, they'll find an increase in marketshare. There's been some attempts at this before, but it hasn't worked out too well.

    Another issue Linux faces is one of the benefits for tech users... market fragmentation. Oh you run Linux? What distro? Arch? Fedora? Ubuntu? Mint? Something else? There's way too much choice and that confuses and scares normal users.

    I agree on this, though haven't a couple of OEMs already done this over the last few years with limited success? If you offer the same machine with Linux and Windows as the OS options, ~95% I'd say would still choose WIndows due to familiarity with the OS and more importantly for their usual applications.

    IMHO, commercial developers treat Linux similar to Windows Phone with the exception of gaming. Bring in MS Office and Adobe's suite of products as starters, and Linux would get more traction.

    I'd prefer if generally Linux had less distributions to choose from, maybe say a maximum of 3 or 4 (e.g. Ubuntu, Fedora, Mint, and Debian) from a user and development point of view.
  • dosbox wrote:
    Deceiver wrote:
    It's still too complicated to use for the average user

    :lol::lol: HAHAHAHAHAHA :lol::lol: Seriously though?

    Linux is so simple to use, I don't understand how anybody could ever have an issue using it. I mean Linux Mint basically has THE SAME desktop structure as Windows does.

    I'm sorry, but no. You won't be using Linux for very long before you come across a problem of some sort and documentation for OSS software is best described as inconsistent. Some is excellent, some meh, and others are nowhere to be seen. Which will then mean entering the wonderful world of the OSS forum world to find a solution.. Where you will either encounter someone with the social skills of a tree telling you to RTFM, or someone who will try to convert you to using a different program/distro to the one you are using instead of solving your fucking problem in the first place.
  • More and more people are leaving Windows, and switching to Linux. Slowly, but it's happening. Around %1.06 of the people in 2011 used Linux, but now, it's %2.11.
    https://www.netmarketshare.com/operatin ... imeframe=M
    And it's increasing more and more everyday.
  • People are moving to Linux - Android and Chromebooks. Year of the GNU/Linux desktop? Not happening. People want a product, not a bunch of pieces that can be assembled into one.
  • Kurtisdede wrote:
    More and more people are leaving Windows, and switching to Linux. Slowly, but it's happening. Around %1.06 of the people in 2011 used Linux, but now, it's %2.11.
    https://www.netmarketshare.com/operatin ... imeframe=M
    And it's increasing more and more everyday.
    I already mentioned that, and it is no wonder why people are migrating from Windows anyway, unless it happened before Windows 8 graced us with its torture and hell. Also, I am aware that people have moved on to Android and Chromebooks also. These are pretty much the only things related to the Linux kernel that have popular appeal. Everything else, shoved in a corner.
  • I'm sorry, but no, Linux is not simple enough to be used by mass users. Evidence? If I have trouble using it myself, how will everyone else do it? In order to do more advanced things like installation, updating, and such, a lot of effort and research is needed. You often need to use the terminal, which is chinese for most users.

    Besides that, market fragmentation is still a problem. On Android, each distribution is phone-manufacturer specific, but with Linux? There exists hundreds of distributions and only one of them (Ubuntu) has been preinstalled on computers at some point. Some unified distro is required to fix the whole issue. Also, another problem is how little amount of software exists for Linux. I'm not sure why, but I can imagine the amount of distros could be a problem. And if Microsoft will be promoting the manufacturer's computers in exchange for using Windows, they won't use Linux, because money.

    Having said that, I do really hope for a future with Linux taking over Windows. I really don't like Windows because of how buggy it has become. Mac on the other hand I do like, but it still isn't for everyone. Let's all pray for Linux I guess. Maybe Android will adapt into a desktop OS one day, but who knows.
  • BOD wrote:
    dosbox wrote:
    Deceiver wrote:
    It's still too complicated to use for the average user
    Linux is so simple to use, I don't understand how anybody could ever have an issue using it. I mean Linux Mint basically has THE SAME desktop structure as Windows does.

    I'm sorry, but no. You won't be using Linux for very long before you come across a problem of some sort and documentation for OSS software is best described as inconsistent. Some is excellent, some meh, and others are nowhere to be seen. Which will then mean entering the wonderful world of the OSS forum world to find a solution.. Where you will either encounter someone with the social skills of a tree telling you to RTFM, or someone who will try to convert you to using a different program/distro to the one you are using instead of solving your fucking problem in the first place.

    I agree with this 100%, try solving something for Open Indiana when all you have is Solaris based articles that are written by Oracle (which isn't to keen on being user friendly) or an out dated article in the early to mid 2000's. Once you use a distro that has a very small community you will understand. Slackware not being one of them. Try plan9, Solaris, Elementary OS, just to name a few. Then you will see.

    Honestly I'm not going to be part of war of whether or not Linux is easy to use. It really depends on your comfortability level with the command line, and whether or not that you like to explore. This is by all, a Windows Forum, that it's main base in old historic software related to Dos, CP/M or windows. I will never try to convert some one to a Linux platform because it all depends on what works for that person.
  • IMHO, commercial developers treat Linux similar to Windows Phone with the exception of gaming. Bring in MS Office and Adobe's suite of products as starters, and Linux would get more traction.

    I agree. Steam was a good first start, but we really need Office and Adobe to make some real headway.

    Also, Linux needs to work on battery life when it comes to running on Laptops. Last I tried it, it was not very friendly to my battery compared to Windows on the same machine.
    BOD wrote:
    I'm sorry, but no. You won't be using Linux for very long before you come across a problem of some sort and documentation for OSS software is best described as inconsistent. Some is excellent, some meh, and others are nowhere to be seen. Which will then mean entering the wonderful world of the OSS forum world to find a solution.. Where you will either encounter someone with the social skills of a tree telling you to RTFM, or someone who will try to convert you to using a different program/distro to the one you are using instead of solving your fucking problem in the first place.

    ^ This... so very much, this.
  • garirry wrote:
    I'm sorry, but no, Linux is not simple enough to be used by mass users. Evidence? If I have trouble using it myself, how will everyone else do it? In order to do more advanced things like installation, updating, and such, a lot of effort and research is needed. You often need to use the terminal, which is chinese for most users.

    Wrong, the average user will never need to touch the terminal. Also, with major distributions, installation and updating are very simple tasks.
    garirry wrote:
    Besides that, market fragmentation is still a problem. On Android, each distribution is phone-manufacturer specific, but with Linux? There exists hundreds of distributions and only one of them (Ubuntu) has been preinstalled on computers at some point. Some unified distro is required to fix the whole issue. Also, another problem is how little amount of software exists for Linux. I'm not sure why, but I can imagine the amount of distros could be a problem. And if Microsoft will be promoting the manufacturer's computers in exchange for using Windows, they won't use Linux, because money.

    There actually is a lot of software on linux, good and easy to use software to be exact. There is no need for a unified distro, since linux was never built on the idea on one size fits all.

    garirry wrote:
    Having said that, I do really hope for a future with Linux taking over Windows. I really don't like Windows because of how buggy it has become. Mac on the other hand I do like, but it still isn't for everyone. Let's all pray for Linux I guess. Maybe Android will adapt into a desktop OS one day, but who knows.

    Well if you want linux to succeed, spreading misinformation isn't going to help at all.
  • BlueSun wrote:
    IMHO, commercial developers treat Linux similar to Windows Phone with the exception of gaming. Bring in MS Office and Adobe's suite of products as starters, and Linux would get more traction.

    I agree. Steam was a good first start, but we really need Office and Adobe to make some real headway.

    There's a great alternative to Office known as LibreOffice and compatibility with M$ Office is almost, if not, exactly, 100%.
  • Given that we're all taking about if Linux will ever succeed, whether it's probable or not, I have changed the topic title to reflect this. Also, I'm glad that anyone doesn't need to use the Terminal when they use a distro. Just like everyone didn't need to use Command Prompt/PowerShell for everything they do. It's just there when you need it.
  • >libreoffice

    >great

    >compatible

    massive, massive keks.

    The key answer is - why the fuck should I, as a normie, install Linux, especially if it didn't come out of the box? If I wanted something that just worked, I'd be buying a Mac or a Chromebook by now, or I'm tethered to Windows for compatibility. ISVs are hesitant to support the variety of distros. If they do, they'll usually just support one.

    You'll probably need to hit the terminal in the event that you are an edge case - your hardware needs some patching or additional software, you install an app outside of the store, etc.
  • I'd be switching to Linux... but the software is what kills it. There are much more things for Windows then Linux. And the small programs, which I use a lot, are mostly only for Linux, Though I'm imagining that will change over the years, because people are switching to Linux more and more, every day. I may just dualboot - I'm already dualbooting Windows XP and 7 though.

    What is the "friendliest" Linux distro can you recommend to me? And how much gigs are Ubuntu?

    Thanks.
  • Kurtisdede wrote:
    What is the "friendliest" Linux distro can you recommend to me? And how much gigs are Ubuntu?
    I would say Linux Mint, for anyone who is very familiar with the Windows-like interface. And as for Ubuntu, it requires 25GB for the latest version of it although, it was significantly less for version 12.04 when I had that installed on a VM.
  • Mint's security policy is fucked up. Just use Ubuntu if you don't specifically care.
  • ampharos wrote:
    Mint's security policy is fucked up. Just use Ubuntu if you don't specifically care.

    Ubuntu's user interface isn't very noob friendly when you compare it to Linux Mint (although Kubuntu or Lubuntu may be fine).

    Explain how Mint's security policy is fucked up? Yeah they may hold back some non-essential kernel updates, but some of those updates have the possibility to break things; Plus, you can always change your settings so those non-essential kernel updates can be installed.
  • The right thing to do is not hold back any security updates, because these are low-key changes, not like a feature upgrade. It's important to do the right thing out of the box - what normie would change the settings?

    Unity is fine. I sat my parents in front of it for a few years (until they needed Windows, for compatibility reasons) and they figured it out.
  • dosbox wrote:
    BlueSun wrote:
    IMHO, commercial developers treat Linux similar to Windows Phone with the exception of gaming. Bring in MS Office and Adobe's suite of products as starters, and Linux would get more traction.

    I agree. Steam was a good first start, but we really need Office and Adobe to make some real headway.

    There's a great alternative to Office known as LibreOffice and compatibility with M$ Office is almost, if not, exactly, 100%.

    I know that, but Average Joe doesn't. The problem is you're thinking like an engineer. It's perfectly acceptable to use to use an alternative platform and find new ways of doing things. But users learned to use computers by memorizing a series of steps someone told them one time. If you deviate from the script, they get lost and confused. So when a normal user goes to start a document, they're going to search for Word. Hell, they even refer to said document as a word document. It's what they know and what they're used to.

    Also, the key thing for me that LibreOffice and the like are missing is an Outlook equivalent. And before you start talking about Thunderbird, Evolution, and countless others... I've tried them. They all suck compared to Outlook, especially when connecting to an exchange server.

    And another thing Linux is missing is a decent RDP client. There's a few to get by, but they're nowhere near as good as the built in client on Windows. Which is pretty much the major theme on Linux... alternative software exists to get by... but it's generally not as good as its Windows / Mac counterpart. Notice that I said "generally" there are some exceptions where the FOSS equivalent is better, but it's a rare breed.
  • Bry89 wrote:
    Also, I'm glad that anyone doesn't need to use the Terminal when they use a distro. Just like everyone didn't need to use Command Prompt/PowerShell for everything they do. It's just there when you need it.
    Depends where are you going with your career. In most Linux/Unix careers, using the terminal is a must. If your just using Linux/Unix GUI then you are missing out on the full power of Linux/Unix. The command line is rich and powerful, and in many ways you can do a shit ton more than you could do in a Windows Command prompt. (Although I do wish there was an office suite for Linux via terminal, reason why I'm taking C++). For example you could create user accounts in one full script. Or get the weather from On-line... For example:
    curl wttr.in/SFO 2</dev/null | head -n 37;
    
    Displays 3 rows of weather forecasts for SFO International air port. I'll try to post some examples in the code forum if I have time.
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